Friday, March 26, 2010

There is a morass

Life can be messy.  Decisions made amidst chaos.  Do you need help?  Use MAUT:  multi-attribute utility theory.

Of course, you need to know the cost utility function and the stakeholder return utility.  This could require the use of a consultant over a period of months if you are trying to get a rational way of getting all the complex issues and the value of importance into the function.  Like: the economic impact, management impact, environmental impact, socioeconomic impact, health & safety, feasibility...

It’s a hard sell, though.  MAUT is finicky.  Mucky.  Engineers and people who make really large policy decisions might need it.

There is an easier way:  Weighted Scores.  You probably have all used this at some time in  your life.  For example, looking for temporary accommodations and your key criteria are cost and distance to the work site.  You weight the criteria based on your values (like cheap rent is more important than how long it will take you to drive to the work site or vice versa).  This is a simple way of looking at things.  Also, human nature kicks in and we will reverse engineer things to get the answer we want (like the apartment that is more expensive had a better view).

Because there are often more than two variables, you may need a more comprehensive model.  Say hello to The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).  You might use this to buy a car, when you are considering price, fuel economy, interior upgrades (leather, heated seats, personal environmental controls), body type, entertainment system...  You figure out the relative importance between the individual criteria.  Do it for each pairwise comparison across the cars...  Then find the geometric average.  Then normalize the criteria...  And you have only established the criteria – you haven’t factored in the cars yet.  Call me.  I have a spreadsheet.  This is a lot of work when you already know that you are going to go into the dealership and buy the Honda.  Or Volvo.  Or whatever.  (Honda Odyssey for me.)

And while we were learning this, one of my team members made a funny noise.  And I had to suppress my giggles.  My eyes were watering and my body shaking.  I still can’t look at him.

"It's dreadful, but there it is." *

*Prof. Jeff McGill

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