Memory from Managerial Economics

When Peter Sephton found that we were withering away, he would play a video to perk us back up.

This one was one of my favourites:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kb0kiiB3O-o

Enjoy!

Sayings by Professor Jeff McGill

There’s no free lunches here.

The real world is a messy place.

It’s dreadful, but there it is.

This ain’t something you do for 10 cents.

It’s just a model.

Is everybody OK with that?

Stuff never happens until it does... and then “Yikes!”

Amongst the Numerati, there is a certain snobbery.

Thank you, Ron, as always.

Hmm?  Mumble, mumble.

You’re gonna want to beat this up a bit.

And...

Eeeeeeeeeee!  (When some crazy incomprehensible formula shows up on the screen.)

There is a morass

Life can be messy.  Decisions made amidst chaos.  Do you need help?  Use MAUT:  multi-attribute utility theory.

Of course, you need to know the cost utility function and the stakeholder return utility.  This could require the use of a consultant over a period of months if you are trying to get a rational way of getting all the complex issues and the value of importance into the function.  Like: the economic impact, management impact, environmental impact, socioeconomic impact, health & safety, feasibility...

It’s a hard sell, though.  MAUT is finicky.  Mucky.  Engineers and people who make really large policy decisions might need it.

There is an easier way:  Weighted Scores.  You probably have all used this at some time in  your life.  For example, looking for temporary accommodations and your key criteria are cost and distance to the work site.  You weight the criteria based on your values (like cheap rent is more important than how long it will take you to drive to the work site or vice versa).  This is a simple way of looking at things.  Also, human nature kicks in and we will reverse engineer things to get the answer we want (like the apartment that is more expensive had a better view).

Because there are often more than two variables, you may need a more comprehensive model.  Say hello to The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).  You might use this to buy a car, when you are considering price, fuel economy, interior upgrades (leather, heated seats, personal environmental controls), body type, entertainment system...  You figure out the relative importance between the individual criteria.  Do it for each pairwise comparison across the cars...  Then find the geometric average.  Then normalize the criteria...  And you have only established the criteria – you haven’t factored in the cars yet.  Call me.  I have a spreadsheet.  This is a lot of work when you already know that you are going to go into the dealership and buy the Honda.  Or Volvo.  Or whatever.  (Honda Odyssey for me.)

And while we were learning this, one of my team members made a funny noise.  And I had to suppress my giggles.  My eyes were watering and my body shaking.  I still can’t look at him.

"It's dreadful, but there it is." *

*Prof. Jeff McGill

Today Was A Good Day

I attended the Queen's EMBA info session as a current student representative.  I think it went well.  The people didn't really have questions.  The last time I was there, there were tons of questions.  I wonder if people just came for the free lunch.

Today was probably the best stats tutorial of them all.  Why?  Because people had questions.  I only had to ask one of mine.  I was going to skip it because I had had a long day.  However, we had a team question about the assignment and it was understood that I would be attending when no one else would...  So I took one for the team.  We ended up having a nice overview of Multiple Regression, Utility (which is just like the Economics version of utility, complete with decreasing marginal returns), Decision Trees (only a wee bit), and Linear Programming.  I'm glad I went.

The best part of today was that I got home just before 9pm.  The kids were asleep in their beds, but I guess my goodnight kisses woke them up.  That means I got some nice hugs.  And isn't that what life is all about?

Tickling my irony bone

I received some junk mail from a wine service today. I like the idea of someone selecting wines I might enjoy and put them in a bundle for me to buy. There is a service in Ottawa that already does this: Savvy Company.


This place was not from around here, though. Nor was it from Niagara-on-the-Lake, another of my favourite places. It is called Wines For Home and hails from Guildford, Surrey, England. I am curious as to how I got on their list. Maybe my email address got sold to them by one of the many companies I contacted when planning our trip to England in 2008.

I had a brief thought that maybe they would be a lead for the Global Business Project. Alas, not everyone on my team enjoys a good glass of wine so I scrapped the idea. (Although wouldn’t it be great to go to some country like Australia or Chile or Argentina and do wine tastings to help them select product to distribute? Or maybe there is a winery in Niagara-on-the-Lake or Prince Edward County that wants to get into the English market.)

With all these ideas dancing in my head, I wanted to have a reference for the town’s approximation to London. It’s not that far. In zooming out, though, the name of another town on the other side of London caught my eye: Milton Keynes. I guess it stood out because it was two words and not hyphenated.  It was the town name of "Milton Keynes" that tickled my irony bone. It was the perfect blend of John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman – one of the biggest critics of Keynesian economics.

A Quick Update on My Training for Ottawa Race Weekend

I have bad knees.  They lock and ache.  Sometimes I hobble around at home when they decide to "give out".  I have been riding a stationary bike for five minutes a day to help build them up.  At least I hope that it is helping to build them up.  I figure I am doing enough to get them warmed up and used to the motion - which is similar to running - yet not so much that I am causing any undo damage.

On sunny days, I go for a 15 minute walk at lunch to get some fresh air into my lungs and to move my body.

And today...  I finally made it to the gym at school and figured out how to program the treadmill for speed intervals (I did incline intervals once by accident) and did 15 minutes worth.  At the end of 15 minutes, I felt like I could go on a bit longer.  Only one other person was in the gym, so I didn't have to abide by the "20 minute rule", so I went for another 30 minutes.  Yes, you read that right.  I ran intervals for 45 minutes.  And I feel OK. Next time, I'll try for a more difficult level.  I was on level 2 today.  My total distance was about 2.5 kms.  Go me!

OMG

Just when I thought the month of April could not possibly get any worse, they posted the assignment due dates for Financial Management.  We have a mini case due on April 21 and another on May 5 (and there are others in May and June).

Now it is time to reflect on what I have done and need to get done.

First, I could send in my two-page proposal for my Individual Paper.  It is written.  I could maybe word smith it a bit more.  But if I really needed to get something off my plate, it could be the first thing gone.  It is due April 6th.  It's OK to hand it in early.

Next, I need to get a handle on Optimization (part of the stats course).  I forgot my folder at home so I was kind of working on it blindly and the Solver function kept saying something like "cell set values do not converge".  That is not a good sign.  And the fact that it wouldn't let me select the reports that come out of the Solver function kind of sealed it for me.  That will be the focus of my work tonight, when I am at home with my notes.  I am the second on the assignment, so I better know what I am doing.  I sure hope my notes were good.  My draft is due March 31st; the assignment is due April 8th.

My negotiations paper is chugging along.  I am working through the various templates in the text book (from Essentials of Negotiation).  Some of the work is drawing out repetitive answers.  I am finding it a bit challenging because the templates are forward thinking, not retrospective.  I am thrilled that I found someone to edit my assignment, though.  I think it will be the best $10/page I have ever spent.  Due date:  to the editor: March 31st; to school: April 5th.

I am on my way to becoming an expert on Strategy Maps and Scorecarding.  My sub-team member and I are meeting at school tomorrow at 1pm to work on it.  I was grateful to be on this sub-team because I wanted to learn more about it - outside of the HR perspective that I originally used for scorecard.  It is a lot of work, though.  I will work on that this afternoon.  The assignment is only due on April 22nd, but the lead on it wants it done by March 31st.  (I guess he thought April looked rather ominous, too.)

Then I have my individual assignment for Managerial Accounting.  It is due April 29th.  Part of my work tomorrow night is to read the relevant information on revenue forecasting in the text book and formulate questions for the guy at work that I'll be meeting with next week.  I will be happy if I have 5 questions for him.  Hopefully I can come up with a couple more.

Lastly, there is this little Stats exam coming up on April 17th.  It's worth 40% of my mark and passing the exam is a requirement for passing the course.  I will be spending most of my evenings this coming week preparing questions for the tutorial which is taking place on Thursday.  I think the reason many people are disappointed with the tutorials is that they haven't shown up with comprehensive questions for Jeff to answer.  I am just as guilty.  On the other hand, Jeff didn't have anything planned, either.  It isn't like when we would go to our 810 or 811 tutorials and John would essentially coach us on how to approach studying for the exam.

Well, it is nearly 1pm and I am hungry.  Off to get some lunch!

Sprucing Up My Space

I have an “enhanced” cubicle in that it has a desk and a space with a meeting table and two chairs. I also have a window – that overlooks the dark brick wall of the hotel next door. You can imagine that the space is not the bright and airy space of my dreams.

The cleaners rarely “clean” the space. Really, I think they just empty the trash. Over the past week or so, I have felt the need to clean my desk, table, and chairs. Soap, water, paper towels, scrubbing. I didn’t really think it would require the scrubbing. I thought a “lick and a promise” would be enough. It’s amazing how the eye adapts and one gets accustomed to the “dirt”. I just did a few minutes of wiping/scrubbing every day. This morning, I wiped down my whole work station again, and the white paper towel wasn’t visibly dirty. I think I have finally cut through the grime that has built up over the years.

Later on this morning, I went on a hunt for a copy of the Report on Business to see if an article I was interested in was in it. No luck, but that is OK as I have the electronic version. On my way back, I peeked into the local flower shop. They carry potted plants too, but usually plants that require bright conditions. I was thrilled to see one plant that had “Low Light” clearly marked on it. It is very rare to find a plant that can handle low light. I bought the Rhipsalis “Trailing” and gave it a home.

It is a celebration of my progress, albeit a small progress. Welcome, plant.

Some Inspiring Words from Jack Canfield

This showed up in my inbox this morning and I thought I would share a snippet with you.

No matter what is going on in the economy...

• hold fast to your dreams,
• visualize them with feeling twice a day,
• keep your self-talk positive,
• surround yourself with positive people,
• read uplifting books,
• trust your intuition,
• take continuous action,
• expect the best,
• respond to feedback by making the necessary corrections,
• and persevere until you get the result you want.

It’s a formula that always works.

I am working on it!  It's really hard to control the self-talk, though!

 

 

Jack Canfield, America's #1 Success Coach, is founder of the billion-dollar book brand Chicken Soup for the Soul© and a leading authority on Peak Performance and Life Success. If you're ready to jump-start your life, make more money, and have more fun and joy in all that you do, get your FREE success tips from Jack Canfield now at: www.FreeSuccessStrategies.com

A Splash of Reality

I thought I was doing well in Stats.  Really.  My team members were ever so graciously spending extra time with me to make sure I got it.  We got our papers back on assignment #4 and apparently I didn't "get it".  I am pretty sad about it.  And I don't even have time to reflect on it because I have to get a ton of things done for Managerial Accounting.  I have a lunch meeting with a team member that I am sub-teamed with for the assignment and then we have our big team meeting on Friday night.  No time to reflect on stats.  :(

Using What I Am Learning

My friend Deb is in Brampton and she has just launched a website to promote her business.  (See the sidebar to the right for the link.  Click on it often.  Google her site.  Help her get her numbers up!)  I didn't know she was doing this and I could easily say that I probably don't know half of what my friends are doing because I have had my head in a book or my fingers on a computer since late August and foresee this to the be case until December 2010.  I am not beating myself up about it, though.  Instead, I am taking it as an opportunity to apply what I am learning.  The next time I am in the GTA, Deb and I will have a coffee date where we will talk about her business and what she can do to have it  blossom into the company of her dreams.  And she is all for it.

All that to say that I sometimes feel like I can apply what I am learning and I can put it to good use.  That makes me happy.

Expanding Your Network

Tomorrow, I am meeting with my Career Coach (part of the all-expense paid trip to Club Queen's*).  We are going to be talking about how I am going to realize my career goals.  As many of you know, one of my goals is to be a Canadian Tire Dealer.  I know the Dealer "deal" so to speak and appreciate that it will be hard work.  I am not afraid of hard work.

There are a few gaps between who I am/what I have today and who I need to be/what I need to have to be a Dealer.  Some of it will be simple:

• re-write the resume to get the appropriate language in there
• go volunteer at a store and get some operational experience
• make some connections in the Dealer world

Then there is the money side of things.  I learned quickly in the Managing the New Venture class that while angel investors are out there, it is not necessarily a venue for me to pursue.  They expect returns.  I can't guarantee returns because I'll be spending the first few years (or more, but really...  I am going to be the best female dealer ever and then the best dealer ever, so "few" is just fine) establishing my store equity.

I need to find a way to make money and fast.  (And I decided to audit an elective, so my tuition bill is going up.)

My Career Coach, at the end of our brief phone call, said that my homework was to expand my network.  That is how I will find the opportunity that will bridge me until I have the funds I need to complete my Dealer application.  How do you go about expanding your network?  Well...  there wasn't clear direction on that.  I forgot to say that she wanted me to double it in two weeks.  Yikes!  Clearly she doesn't know how shy I am!

I have been working on LinkedIn, establishing contacts with people that I haven't chatted with in ages.  In some cases, it was over 10 years.  I didn't want to indiscriminately add people to my network, though.  I wanted them to be people that I liked or respected.  I had to keep reminding myself of Malcolm Gladwell's reference of a study from 1974 in his book "The Tipping Point" that indicated you needed to expand your network to your acquaintances because they would circulate in different circles than you and your friends...  It's the value of the weak link.  You can understand that, but it is still hard work expanding your network.  I'll be working at it on and off for, what looks like, ever. 

I also volunteered to help out at a local women's lunch event, thinking that it would give me the opportunity to meet some people and start working on those weak links.  I met the two representatives from the organization that hosts the event and a videographer.  I got the videographer's card.  You never know.


*Credit to Barry Cross for this saying

This Will Change Your Life

We finished our Negotiations class today and our professor's favourite saying is "This will change your life!"  Here are some tips for you:

Read "Getting to Yes"
Practice and experiment in everyday interactions as well as more formal negotiations
Follow the news and analyze international disputes in terms of the negotiation process
Work on your weaknesses
Always prepare thoroughly
Be sensitive to other people's framing
See things from the other side's perspective

I Won a Free Tall Drink at Starbucks

Yesterday, when I was getting my Venti Bold, they gave me a receipt.  As it turns out, it is one of those "do the survey, get a free tall drink" deals.  So I did the survey.  What to get, what to get...

We have Negotiations Management today.  I am selling some property in Gotham City and have a bunch rules that I must abide by.  I guess I should get back to taking my notes on it so that I am reasonably prepared for the negotiations simulation.

Managerial Accounting

I have a Venti Bold to keep me company (and awake) for the last two thirds of today's Managerial Accounting class.  We played blackjack and I ended up "making" $2,500 in fake money...  It's all in the name of learning about the corporate controls.  I still think that I need the caffeine.

All Information Is Available to Everyone All The Time - Part Deux

Queen's University has a seeker service that has found this humble blog, reminding us all that Andrew Waisman was right. (see:  http://michellessuccess.blogspot.com/2010/01/all-information-is-available-to.html)  


I don't know if their awareness of the blog was brought to my attention because they want to preserve the brand of Queen's (so it was a warning and I better not say anything bad) or if they thought is was interesting that I was doing a blog.  I suppose I should have asked.  Or maybe I should push the limits and see what their reaction is.  Hmmmm.....


Well, John (or other Queen's people) if you are reading this, you too can join me at the top of the Eiffel Tower for my birthday party on January 1, 2017.  There are 2487 days left!

Aspiring to a High Level of OCD?

This morning I was "complimented":  that I was the only person in the class that approximated the same level of someone else's obsessive compulsive disorder.  Is that a compliment?  In this case, I guess it was.  It was an indirect compliment about being focussed on my goals and having a solid, detailed plan to get there.  I just took offense to the "OCD" label.

You Are Amazing

There was an event in Toronto for International Woman's Day this past weekend.  Marsh Engle spoke and shared the 6 essentials that make a woman amazing:


Envision: Be Willing To Grow Beyond The Defined.
Empower: Find The Yes In All Things.
Ignite: Ignite The Power of Possibilities.
Explore: Play With Fresh Curiosity.
Trust: Collaborate With Sheer Trust.
Embrace: Bring Your Brilliance To Life.

A little food for thought for you on this lovely Thursday.  I think every one can be amazing.

Decision Trees and The QLC Assignment Calculator

In Stats, which is really called "Analysis Based Decision Making", we are working on the stuff that the title of the course is about:  making decisions when you don't have full information.  In the course, they give you the probabilities of certain outcomes based on the decisions you make (in real life, you either guess about the probability based on your hunches or you use some historical data) and then you apply it to the various models available.  There are a few that we went through, but our assignment is mainly focussed on decision trees. 

You can get an add-in for Excel that helps you create a decision tree.  I don't think I can post one here.  It looks cool.  (My husband walked by and asked how it worked, so you know that there is a bit of a cool factor to how it looks.)  It can be frustrating, though.  For example, the "undo" feature in Excel does not apply to the decision tree.  Once you do something, and it is wrong, you either figure out how to remove the traces of it or you start all over.  I have learned that it is faster to start all over.

I must finish the assignment tonight because I want to work on another assignment tomorrow night and I have a musical to go see on Thursday night.  Priorities...

Speaking of priorities...  I was wandering around the Queen's Library website looking for journal articles on Identity and Access Management Policies (let me know if you have one you can share) and found this neat little tool called The QLC Assignment Calculator.  You put in the date you will be starting your assignment, the due date, and it tells you what you need to have done by when.  For example, I have a Managerial Accounting paper due at the end of April.  By Friday of this week, I have to have my topic selected and some preliminary research done.  By next Friday, I need to find, review and evaluate books.  By March 31st, find, review, and evaluate journal/magazine/newpaper articles.  Then web sites by April 3rd...  Have a structure written by April 4th.  First draft by April 9th...  You get the idea.  They didn't say anything about conducting interviews, though, which is how I will be doing my preliminary research on this applied accounting paper.  I will find a way to blend it in there somewhere.

2494 days and Counting!

It is 2494 days until my fancy dinner at the top of the Eiffel Tower.  I am amazed at the positive response received so far!

Dime Sighting

On my way to work this morning, I spotted a dime on the floor and picked it up.

Then I read an article in this newsletter I get where they discussed "dime sightings".

The author explained that each time you find a dime means good luck and a great financial future. She went on to say that it signified a loved one that had passed on was looking out for you.


Sure, it's kind of superstitious.  I am of the mindset that there are no coincidences.  Thank you to the loved one who is looking out for me.

They say there aren't any coincidences or purposeless encounters

If that is the case, then I need to tell you about Siri.

We were standing in line at Shoppers Drug Mart together and she was reaching for the Kashi bars that were on sale - and of course were on the top shelf so that only the most tenacious people could get them, if they could see them.  She talked me into getting some for myself.  Then, she let me pass her in line while she got the guy behind her to help her get another box.  We continued chatting and she handed me a $0.50 coupon for the bars.  Very nice.

She then told me that she ran a Bed and Breakfast and that one of her clients had gone into her cupboards and eaten a whole box of the Kashi bars.  Now I have her card for the B&B.  She also is a registered massage therapist, and it is always good to know a massage therapist.

Here is Siri's info in case you need to stay at a B&B in Ottawa:

Siri Bandhu Khalsa
Downtown B&B
263 McLeod Street
613.563.4399

Tell her Michelle from the Shoppers Drug Mart line sent you.

You Are Invited!

I went to Paris, France in November 1989 and have always wanted to return.

On January 1, 2017, I will be celebrating my 50th birthday in style:  with dinner at the top of the Eiffel Tower.  I would be thrilled if my family and friends could join me. 

Here is a link to "Jules Verne", the restaurant I want to go to, for you to check out and and start your planning.

http://www.lejulesverne-paris.com/

I am giving you all substantial notice because I know that such a trip can be expensive, but with the right inspiration, you will be able to join me.  It's a little less than seven years away.  I figure I will need to put away about $1,000 per year for this trip, which is about $20 a week.

I hope you can join me!!